Uncertainties at the Beginning
Highlights
MiningMath supports early-stage planning under uncertainty by enabling scenario testing without fixed constraints. Its integrated optimization avoids premature assumptions, reduces manual rework, and accelerates identification of viable strategies even when economic inputs are not yet defined.
One of the many possibilities offered by MiningMath’s approach is to have multiple overview scenarios to evaluate different project assumptions, before doing a more detailed work. It does not demand an arbitrary/automated trial-and-error cutoff definition, nor a fixed input in form of pushbacks that will guide further optimization steps within the boundaries of a simplified problem. A subtle but substantial implication is the possibility of seeing a totally different mine development throughout the mine life cycle for each project assumption change. This allows mine managers to have a clearer view of the decision-tree and the possibilities on their hands, to improve economic, technical, and socio-environmental performances.
Considering this context, mine managers can judge greenfield projects to know whether or not they should prioritize a geotechnical study. This could be done by running multiple scenarios, considering the expected variability for slope angles for a given deposit. For example, in a given deposit, benchmarks from similar deposits indicate the overall slope angles might vary between 35-45 degrees. Before reaching the conclusion using an in-depth geotechnical study, multiple scenarios can be used to estimate the economic impact of each possible assumption for the overall slope angle. The conclusion might, then indicate a low economic impact, that could postpone the need for a detailed study.
The same idea applies to any parameter, which ultimately represents a project assumption.
MiningMath conducted an illustrative example with 2000 simulations varying multiple parameters independently. The results produced the chart from Figure 1, showing the probability (Y-axis) and the Project’s Value (X-axis). In this case, a detailed geotechnical study might be postponed, as the Project’s Value varies between 700 to 1100 MU$, in function of the OSA.
